UBER long intact
Uber Technologies, Inc.
Uber: Growth, Cash Flow, and the Autonomous Vehicle Opportunity
Thesis
- Uber's scale across Mobility and Delivery creates a network advantage that smaller competitors have difficulty matching.
- Profitability and cash generation are growing faster than Gross Bookings, with trailing free cash flow exceeding $10 billion.
- Uber's autonomous vehicle partnerships give it an opportunity to remain the platform connecting customers with transportation as AV adoption grows.
Kill criteria
What would prove this thesis wrong:
- Autonomous vehicle companies successfully build competing ride-hailing networks that materially weaken Uber's platform advantage.
- Growth in Gross Bookings slows substantially without a corresponding improvement in profitability or free cash flow.
Company Overview
Uber Technologies connects customers with transportation and delivery services. Its business is primarily divided into Mobility, Delivery, and Freight.
Unlike a traditional transportation company, Uber does not own most of the vehicles operating on its platform. Instead, its technology connects customers with drivers and allows Uber to earn a portion of each transaction.
One of Uber’s biggest advantages is the size of its network. More riders attract more drivers, while more drivers improve convenience for riders. Uber can also use the same customer base across several services, including rides and Uber Eats.
Uber’s main competitors include Lyft in ride-hailing and DoorDash in delivery. Uber’s combination of a large international ride-hailing network and delivery business gives it a more diversified platform than either competitor.
Financial Performance
Uber’s financial performance has improved significantly as the company has continued to grow.
For 2025, Uber generated $193.5 billion in Gross Bookings, up 19%, while revenue increased 18% to $52.0 billion. Adjusted EBITDA increased 35% to $8.7 billion, and free cash flow increased 42% to $9.8 billion.
That momentum continued into 2026. Q1 Gross Bookings increased 25% to $53.7 billion, while Adjusted EBITDA increased 33% to approximately $2.5 billion. In Q2, Gross Bookings increased another 24% to a record $58.0 billion, while Adjusted EBITDA increased 33% to $2.8 billion.
Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow also exceeded $10 billion for the first time.
Autonomous Vehicles
One of the biggest questions surrounding Uber is how autonomous vehicles will affect its business.
Rather than developing all of the technology itself, Uber has partnered with autonomous vehicle companies. In September 2026, Uber and Wayve launched supervised autonomous rides in London. Riders can be matched with Wayve autonomous vehicles through the Uber app, although a licensed driver is still present to supervise the vehicle.
Uber is also working with Lucid and Nuro on a robotaxi service. The companies plan to launch in the San Francisco Bay Area later in 2026 and expand to Houston in 2027. The partnership eventually calls for at least 35,000 vehicles across multiple markets.
Uber’s strategy allows it to participate in autonomous vehicles without developing all of the technology itself. AV companies still need customers, and Uber already has a large worldwide customer base. If customers continue using Uber as the platform through which they access autonomous vehicles, Uber could benefit from the technology rather than be replaced by it.
The main risk is that autonomous vehicle companies could build their own successful ride-hailing networks. If that happens at scale, Uber could lose some of the network advantages it currently has.
Valuation
As of October 2, 2026, Uber closed at $68.11 per share, giving the company a market value of approximately $139 billion. The stock was well below its 52-week high of about $101, even though the company’s financial performance had continued to improve.
With more than $10 billion in trailing free cash flow and a market value of roughly $139 billion, Uber traded at approximately:
$139 billion market value / $10+ billion trailing free cash flow = approximately 14x trailing free cash flow.
That valuation appears reasonable for a company still producing double-digit Gross Bookings growth and Adjusted EBITDA growth above 30%.
Technical Analysis
As of October 2, Uber was trading below its 50-day moving average of approximately $73 and its 200-day moving average of approximately $75.
Its 14-day RSI was around 37, suggesting that the stock had recently experienced significant selling pressure, although it was not technically oversold.
The stock had recently found support around the $67–68 range, while the $73–75 range could act as resistance. A sustained move back above this range would be a more positive sign for the stock’s longer-term trend.
Investment View
I rate Uber a Buy at the valuation analyzed in this write-up.
The company continues to grow its core businesses while profits and free cash flow are increasing even faster. At approximately $68 per share, the valuation is also considerably more attractive than when Uber traded above $100.
The biggest long-term risk is autonomous vehicles. However, Uber’s partnerships with multiple AV companies give it a realistic opportunity to remain an important part of the transportation market as the technology develops.
The investment thesis would weaken if autonomous vehicle companies successfully build competing ride-hailing networks at scale, or if Uber’s growth slows materially without continued improvement in profitability and cash generation.